As an investor, it is helpful to understand the yield curve. Its movements are tied to economic growth, monetary policy, and inflation which impact investment portfolios.
In this episode, Ryan English, CFA, CPA, CFP®, talks with Sarah Conwell, MFE, to explain the significance of two separate points on the curve and the ways investors interpret its shape, slopes, and steepness during economic cycles.
Sarah shares more about:
The concept of a yield curve
What the yield curve can tell you
The shape of the yield curve during economic cycles
As a fixed income investment professional, Sarah possesses over nine years of experience, and her greatest skills lie in investment research, portfolio management, and macroeconomic analysis. Sarah is a dedicated investment professional with expertise in fixed income securities, financial reporting and analysis, risk mitigation, statistical analysis, financial systems implementation, and revenue generation for overall company growth. Also, she is known for thorough, accurate, and profitable securities recommendations based on analytical processes and data-driven decision-making, and she possesses strong market knowledge in multiple sectors. Additionally, she is consistently relied upon to spearhead projects requiring analysis and collaborative problem solving while working in a fast-paced environment.
The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of a year for stocks in over 50 years, with the fear that inflation was right around the corner.
In this episode, Mark Motley, CFA, shares a brief market update from the second quarter of the year, outlining the impact of inflation, the prospect of a recession, and what all these key changes mean for you.
Mark shares more about:
Why the federal reserve changed its posture from accommodating to restrictive
A glimpse into the effects of inflation
What market changes you are expected to see this month
Excerpts from prior Updates as mentioned in the episode:
1/4/2021 Market Update
Another near-term concern is the possibility of rising inflation. The money supply has risen nearly 25% over the past year … that’s a significant concern as we move later into 2021. It’s well known that the Federal Reserve has committed to an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period. We think that characterization is inaccurate. Instead, we think the Fed intends to remain in an accommodative mode essentially forever to the extent tame inflation allows, and that it will do so until inflation increases … the reason higher inflation is likely to have severe consequences for markets is that it would be the catalyst to change the Fed’s posture.
2/1/2021 Market Update
Inflation: We’ve written of this danger before … we note the most common measure of the money supply has expanded nearly 27% in the past twelve months … [we] are entirely confident a higher inflation scenario, should it occur, would greatly upset markets since it would force the Federal Reserve to reverse its easy money policy.
4/2/2021 Market Update
Many think the … $1.9T stimulus bill may be over-stimulus, eventually leading to inflation and a need for the Fed to tighten. And close on the heels of the last give-away comes talk of much, much more and perhaps too soon, as some are beginning to fear this porridge may too soon become “too hot”. If a rude discovery is made that free money isn’t free, that may not sit well with either the economy or markets.
7/1/2021 Market Update
That inflation turned up significantly was no surprise. The question is whether higher inflation will be transitory or persistent. … We’ll have to see. What we do know is this is the most urgent unanswered investment question of the hour … The reason is any moderation in accommodative Federal Reserve policy will be dictated by future inflation, Fed policy in turn defines liquidity, and liquidity drives markets …
10/4/2021 Market Update
If higher inflation is not transient, the Fed will be unable to remain accommodative and markets would likely retrench. We don’t know how this will play out, but we recognize danger to markets from inflation that may be stickier than markets currently expect, and this may not be sufficiently appreciated …
… conditions remain positive for markets, but it’s a fragile positive, and inflation appears to be the thing with the best chance of upsetting it. The world is awash in created money that has bid up stock and home prices. That’s nice, of course, but underlying, intrinsic values have not risen as much and inflation may test that, particularly if it forces the Fed to a tight money mode.
1/3/2022 Market Update
Economic growth is booming. However, inflation remains a looming question, and the Federal Reserve, which had formerly labeled the price surge “transitory,” recently removed that word from its communication, implying more concern about inflation as a longer-lasting problem. “Owner’s equivalent rent” represents nearly a fourth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the … lags built into the convoluted calculation of this part of consumer inflation mean home price jumps which have already occurred are likely to boost inflation readings for several months to come.
