As an investor, it is helpful to understand the yield curve. Its movements are tied to economic growth, monetary policy, and inflation which impact investment portfolios.
In this episode, Ryan English, CFA, CPA, CFP®, talks with Sarah Conwell, MFE, to explain the significance of two separate points on the curve and the ways investors interpret its shape, slopes, and steepness during economic cycles.
Sarah shares more about:
The concept of a yield curve
What the yield curve can tell you
The shape of the yield curve during economic cycles
As a fixed income investment professional, Sarah possesses over nine years of experience, and her greatest skills lie in investment research, portfolio management, and macroeconomic analysis. Sarah is a dedicated investment professional with expertise in fixed income securities, financial reporting and analysis, risk mitigation, statistical analysis, financial systems implementation, and revenue generation for overall company growth. Also, she is known for thorough, accurate, and profitable securities recommendations based on analytical processes and data-driven decision-making, and she possesses strong market knowledge in multiple sectors. Additionally, she is consistently relied upon to spearhead projects requiring analysis and collaborative problem solving while working in a fast-paced environment.
The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of a year for stocks in over 50 years, with the fear that inflation was right around the corner.
In this episode, Mark Motley, CFA, shares a brief market update from the second quarter of the year, outlining the impact of inflation, the prospect of a recession, and what all these key changes mean for you.
Mark shares more about:
Why the federal reserve changed its posture from accommodating to restrictive
A glimpse into the effects of inflation
What market changes you are expected to see this month
Excerpts from prior Updates as mentioned in the episode:
1/4/2021 Market Update
Another near-term concern is the possibility of rising inflation. The money supply has risen nearly 25% over the past year … that’s a significant concern as we move later into 2021. It’s well known that the Federal Reserve has committed to an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period. We think that characterization is inaccurate. Instead, we think the Fed intends to remain in an accommodative mode essentially forever to the extent tame inflation allows, and that it will do so until inflation increases … the reason higher inflation is likely to have severe consequences for markets is that it would be the catalyst to change the Fed’s posture.
2/1/2021 Market Update
Inflation: We’ve written of this danger before … we note the most common measure of the money supply has expanded nearly 27% in the past twelve months … [we] are entirely confident a higher inflation scenario, should it occur, would greatly upset markets since it would force the Federal Reserve to reverse its easy money policy.
4/2/2021 Market Update
Many think the … $1.9T stimulus bill may be over-stimulus, eventually leading to inflation and a need for the Fed to tighten. And close on the heels of the last give-away comes talk of much, much more and perhaps too soon, as some are beginning to fear this porridge may too soon become “too hot”. If a rude discovery is made that free money isn’t free, that may not sit well with either the economy or markets.
7/1/2021 Market Update
That inflation turned up significantly was no surprise. The question is whether higher inflation will be transitory or persistent. … We’ll have to see. What we do know is this is the most urgent unanswered investment question of the hour … The reason is any moderation in accommodative Federal Reserve policy will be dictated by future inflation, Fed policy in turn defines liquidity, and liquidity drives markets …
10/4/2021 Market Update
If higher inflation is not transient, the Fed will be unable to remain accommodative and markets would likely retrench. We don’t know how this will play out, but we recognize danger to markets from inflation that may be stickier than markets currently expect, and this may not be sufficiently appreciated …
… conditions remain positive for markets, but it’s a fragile positive, and inflation appears to be the thing with the best chance of upsetting it. The world is awash in created money that has bid up stock and home prices. That’s nice, of course, but underlying, intrinsic values have not risen as much and inflation may test that, particularly if it forces the Fed to a tight money mode.
1/3/2022 Market Update
Economic growth is booming. However, inflation remains a looming question, and the Federal Reserve, which had formerly labeled the price surge “transitory,” recently removed that word from its communication, implying more concern about inflation as a longer-lasting problem. “Owner’s equivalent rent” represents nearly a fourth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the … lags built into the convoluted calculation of this part of consumer inflation mean home price jumps which have already occurred are likely to boost inflation readings for several months to come.
Balance is a tricky thing. Something that is balanced today may not maintain its balance; take investment portfolios, for example. When Foster & Motley begins working with a client, they balance their portfolio based on several targets, but over time rebalancing is necessary to maintain those targets.
In this episode, Ryan English, CFA, CPA, CFP®, and Nicholas Roth, CFP® explain their hands-on approach to rebalancing, and the importance of rebalancing across a household of accounts rather than individual accounts.
Ryan and Nick also talk about:
Two types of rebalances
The importance of rebalancing accounts
Why you don’t want one asset class to grow too big
Many people’s instinct is to sell when the market takes a hit, but making those decisions based on emotion seldom has the best outcome.
In this episode, Ryan English, MBA, CFA, CPA, CFP®, shares his insight on the importance of understanding and the questionnaire Foster & Motley uses to help determine their client’s risk tolerance. He explains how the risk tolerance questionnaire informs decisions about the client’s portfolio and investment policy statement.
Ryan shares more about:
What a risk tolerance questionnaire is
The importance of understanding your risk tolerance
Estate tax doesn’t necessarily affect everyone, but for those it does impact, it can be a big deal. Also, the laws around it have changed several times, and are expected to again soon.
In this episode, Tony Luckhardt, MBA, CFP®, CRPC®, and Emily Diaz, CPA, CFP®, share about the history of estate taxes. They also provide insight on how people can plan ahead for gifting to loved ones which can help to minimize your estate tax bill.
Tony and Emily share more about:
What the difference is between an estate tax and an estate plan
Who needs to be concerned about estate taxes and why
To truly understand the stock market, it is important to understand how stocks are divided into different sectors. Having a grasp on these sectors can benefit you in the long run.
In this episode, Thom Guidi, CFA, discusses how to identify which stocks belong within each of the 11 stock market sectors and why it matters. Also, learn how Foster & Motley makes it easy for their clients to see what sectors their stock investments are in.
Thom shares more about:
The 11 stock market sectors (according to GICS)
Investors managing their own money
The benefits of using sectors in your investment process
It’s 2022 and everyone is still dealing with the impact of COVID-19 along with many other changes that affect your financial life. But, at Foster & Motley, they continue to adapt in new ways to help their clients keep moving forward.
In this episode, Zach Horn, MBA, CFP®, CMFC®, and Nick Roth, CFP® discuss the continued growth within the company and with client relationships. They also touch on some exciting things that are ahead for 2022.
Nick and Zach share more about:
How they have adapted to provide ongoing service to their clients
CNBC FA 100 National ranking which included Foster & Motley for the 3rd year in a row
Ratings and rankings from publications and rating services are not a guarantee of future investment results and are not intended as a testimonial or endorsement of Foster & Motley as an investment advisory firm. Foster & Motley did not pay a fee for any of the ratings or rankings mentioned. The criteria and formulas used by publications to rate and rank an investment adviser are generally based on data provided by the advisory firm, and not all investment advisers provide data. Each publication provides details regarding the criteria they use. Please refer to FosterandMotley.com for criteria specific to each rating or ranking.